Japan's Large Retailers Boost Sales on Warm Weather (Update1)

Japan's Large Retailers Boost Sales on Warm Weather (Update1)

By Jason Clenfield

March 29 (Bloomberg) -- Sales at Japan's biggest retailers rose for the first time in five months, signaling the country's economic expansion may be spreading to consumers.

Sales at large stores open for at least 12 months climbed 0.5 percent from a year earlier, the trade ministry said today in Tokyo. Including new stores, receipts rose 1.6 percent, the most in more than a year. Shoppers flocked to Daimaru Inc. and Isetan Co. stores as warm weather spurred demand for spring clothes.

Consumer spending accounts for more than half of Japan's economy and a rebound may help sustain growth in the face of likely slowdowns in exports and business investment. Economists predict reports tomorrow will show unemployment matched an eight- year low and household spending rose for a second month, following more than a year of declines.

``Large retailers are losing market share, so the fact that the number comes in strong says something positive about spending,'' said Hiroshi Shiraishi, an economist at Lehman Brothers Japan Inc. ``The contribution of exports will fade and household spending will pick up a bit.''

The yen traded at 117.20 per dollar at 1:13 p.m. in Tokyo from 116.93 before the report.

Overall retail sales dropped 0.2 percent from a year earlier as warm weather cut demand for heating oil, the trade ministry said. February's temperatures were between 2 and 3 degrees Celsius higher than average and some areas had the most sunshine in 50 years, according to the weather bureau.

Willing to Spend

``Weather effects tend to come out in the wash over the course of a few months,'' said Julian Jessop, chief international economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in London. ``People are willing and able to spend.''

Department store sales, which account for 8 percent of the retail total, rose at the fastest pace in 11 months in February, as warmer weather sparked interest in spring clothing, the Japan Department Stores Association said last week.

Daimaru and Isetan, Japan's third- and fourth-largest department stores, reported higher sales in the month, buoyed by brisk demand for dresses and light jackets.

Retail sales were ``basically flat,'' though there are signs of improvement, said Takahide Arai, a trade ministry spokesman. He cited last month's report in which four of the seven categories tracked by the ministry showed declines, while this month only two did: autos and weather-affected fuel sales.

Sales of automobiles fell 5.2 percent, the 11th month of declines. Japan's aging consumers are choosing not to replace their vehicles as manufacturers including Nissan Motor Co. release fewer new models.

Services, Internet

Today's report probably understates consumption because it excludes spending on services and the Internet. The government's index of demand for services climbed to a record in February.

Japan Travel Bureau estimated spending on vacations increased 2 percent in 2006. Combined sales at the vendors listed on Rakuten Inc., Japan's largest Internet shopping site, surged 37 percent for the year.

Spending on services made up 57 percent of private consumption in 2006, compared with about 50 percent a decade ago, according to the Cabinet Office. As Japan's consumers get older, spending will probably shift from retailing toward travel and leisure, economists say.

Household spending probably grew 0.6 percent in February after rising for the first time in 13 months in January, economists estimate. The unemployment rate probably stayed at 4 percent for a fourth month. The government releases both reports tomorrow at 8:30 a.m. in Tokyo.

A Cabinet Office survey of merchants who deal directly with the public showed sentiment improved in the month for the first time since September.

From a month earlier, retail sales fell a seasonally adjusted 0.9 percent after jumping 2.2 percent in January, the trade ministry said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jason Clenfield in Tokyo at jclenfield@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: March 29, 2007 00:15 EDT

Bernanke Says New Words Mean Little Change to Inflation Message

Bernanke Says New Words Mean Little Change to Inflation Message

By Scott Lanman and Steve Matthews

March 29 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke's words may be different, but the message is the same as the past seven months: He's more concerned about inflation than a slowing economy.

Bernanke told Congress yesterday that risks to economic growth have increased, especially because of the downturns in housing and company investment. The dangers aren't big enough to make the Fed dump its orientation toward combating prices, or ``inflation bias,'' he added.

The chairman clarified the Federal Open Market Committee's March 21 interest-rate statement, which led to conflicting interpretations by Wall Street economists. He rebuffed the notion that officials had shifted to a ``neutral'' stance and, in doing so, reduced speculation borrowing costs will be cut in coming months.

``At some point a Fed speaker, and it turned out to be the man himself, would come out and correct any misperception that the bias had been outright dropped,'' said Steven East, chief economist at investment bank Friedman Billings Ramsey Group Inc. in Arlington, Virginia. ``The bias is still toward tightening --a little softer, but still toward tightening.''

Some investors are still having a hard time digesting the idea that the Fed remains tilted toward raising rates.

Traders expect the Fed to cut its benchmark rate a quarter- point by August and again by year-end. The central bank has left the overnight lending rate between banks at 5.25 percent since August. Most of the 73 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News this month said the Fed will cut its rate to 5 percent or lower by December.

`Probably Misplaced'

``What we learned today was that hopes for a rate cut sooner are probably misplaced,'' East said.

The comments, Bernanke's first since the March 21 decision, and the most expansive remarks on that day's statement by any Fed member, underscored the Fed's dilemma.

While inflation has been at or above the top of the Fed chief's comfort zone for almost three years, any further rate increases may worsen the housing slump, given the sensitivity to changes in borrowing costs.

``The uncertainties have risen, and therefore a little more flexibility might be desirable,'' Bernanke said under questioning from Representative Jim Saxton of New Jersey, the ranking Republican on the Joint Economic Committee. ``Nevertheless, I do want to emphasize that we have not shifted away from an inflation bias.''

He said the Fed's outlook for ``moderate'' growth over coming quarters wasn't much changed by recent data, which indicated the housing market has yet to hit bottom and business spending continues to contract. Gains in employment and income are helping consumer spending support growth, he said.

Deeper Decline

Some economists retained their predictions of lower rates, calculating that a deeper slump in housing, spurred by rising delinquencies on the riskiest mortgages, will infect the overall economy.

``There will be bigger spillover from the housing market,'' said Paul Kasriel, director of economic research for Northern Trust Securities in Chicago and a former Fed economist. ``I don't believe their forecast. I think we are skating on thin ice.''

Economic reports this week backed Kasriel's pessimism. The Commerce Department said yesterday that durable-goods orders excluding transportation unexpectedly fell for a second month in February, triggering declines in Treasury yields and higher expectations for Fed rate reductions.

Dropped Language

The FOMC last week dropped a reference to the potential for ``additional firming'' in interest rates, language repeated since it ceased two years of increases in August. The shift suggested to some Fed watchers that policy makers were opening the door to lowering rates.

Bernanke stressed yesterday that ``inflation is above the levels most conducive to the achievement of sustainable growth and price stability.''

He told lawmakers that problems in the subprime market are ``likely to be contained,'' noting that mortgages for prime borrowers continue to ``perform well.'' More broadly, ``the drag from residential investment should wane'' as the stock of unsold new homes diminishes, he said.

Foreclosures last month jumped 12 percent from a year ago and home values in 20 American metropolitan areas dropped 0.2 percent in January from a year earlier, according to reports this week. Delinquencies on subprime mortgages rose to a 3 1/2-year high of 13.3 percent last quarter, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported March 13.

Preferred Measure

The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures price index, minus food and energy, rose 2.3 percent in the 12 months to January. Bernanke and other Fed officials have said they are comfortable with the index rising at a 1 percent to 2 percent pace.

``Bernanke chose to emphasize that the Fed is still tilted toward higher interest rates, though the bias isn't as strong because of the uncertainties,'' said Tony Crescenzi, chief bond market strategist at broker Miller Tabak & Co. in New York. ``The best bet is for rates to be unchanged.''

To contact the reporters on this story: Scott Lanman in Washington at slanman@bloomberg.net ; Steve Matthews in Washington at smatthews@bloomberg.net .

Last Updated: March 29, 2007 00:07 EDT

Bernanke Keeps `Inflation Bias,' Sees Growth Risks (Update6)

Bernanke Keeps `Inflation Bias,' Sees Growth Risks (Update6)

By Craig Torres and Scott Lanman

March 28 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said monetary policy is still aimed at combating inflation even though risks to economic growth are multiplying.

``Our policy is still oriented towards control of inflation, which we consider to be at this time to be the greater risk,'' he told the Joint Economic Committee of Congress in Washington today. Still, ``uncertainties have risen, and therefore a little more flexibility might be desirable.''

His comments contained no reference to a possible interest rate cut, which some economists predict as soon as next quarter. Bernanke said the central bank last week dropped its stated tilt toward higher borrowing costs because policy makers wanted more room to maneuver. Policy makers want to move away from guidance on future rate decisions, he added.

``Neutral policy would be one where there is sense that the risks are weighted equally on both sides of the dual mandate, and therefore policy is essentially unpredictable and it depends on events as they come forward,'' Bernanke said. ``I do want to emphasize that we have not shifted away from an inflation bias.''

Bernanke was also chastised for the Fed's role in allowing too many subprime borrowers -- people with weak or sketchy credit histories -- to get mortgages they couldn't afford to repay. He told Committee Chairman Senator Charles Schumer, a New York Democrat, that the Fed ``needs more clarity'' about its ability to supervise the non-bank subsidiaries of bank holding companies. He added that ``it is worth looking at'' a federal predatory lending law.

First Since FOMC

The comments are his first on the economy since the Fed last week kept its benchmark rate at 5.25 percent. Reports this month showed a slide in new-home sales and consumer confidence, rising foreclosures and inflation that's still elevated.

``The economy appears likely to continue to expand at a moderate pace over coming quarters,'' he said earlier today in his prepared remarks to the Committee, dismissing concerns about a recession expressed by his predecessor Alan Greenspan.

Stocks fell and the dollar pared a decline against the yen. Hours before Bernanke spoke, a government report showed orders for durable goods excluding transportation unexpectedly fell for a second month.

Clarification

The Fed's statement last week puzzled investors because it abandoned an explicit preference for tighter credit at the same time that inflation was described as the ``predominant concern.'' Some economists read the language as opening the door to a rate cut and others clung to predictions of an increase.

``He was clarifying that inflation risks are still existent,'' said Jason Schenker, an economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina. ``This is further reinforcement that the Fed is on hold for the rest of the year.'' He had previously predicted a reduction by June.

Fed officials forecast last month an expansion of 2.5 percent to 3 percent this year and 2.75 percent to 3 percent in 2008. Inflation, according to their outlook, will run at 2 percent to 2.25 percent this year, and 1.75 percent to 2 percent next year, minus food and energy. The unemployment rate will remain between 4.5 percent and 4.75 percent in both years.

Rising mortgage defaults and falling home prices have dimmed prospects for a quick recovery in housing. Foreclosures last month jumped 12 percent from a year ago and home values in 20 American metropolitan areas dropped 0.2 percent in January from a year ago, according to reports this week.

Foreclosures

A rise in foreclosures increases the possibility that builders and sellers will have to compete with an even bigger glut of properties on the market. The supply of unsold new homes at the current sales pace rose to the highest in 16 years as sales fell to the lowest level since 2000, the Commerce Department reported this week.

Stronger-than-forecast sales of previously owned homes and a rebound in residential construction last month may have been influenced by better weather, economists said.

Economists trimmed estimates for growth this year after corporate purchases of equipment and software declined at an annual rate of 3.2 percent last quarter, the most since the final three months of 2002, according to Commerce Department data.

The Fed's preferred inflation benchmark, the personal consumption expenditures price index, minus food and energy, has been at or above the two percent comfort zone of at least six Fed officials for 34 months. The price measure rose 2.3 percent for the twelve months ending January.

An index of 18 industrial materials tracked by the JOC-ECRI Index is up 2.5 percent year-to-date, and 12 percent over the past year. Oil prices are climbing.

Attacked in Congress

Congress has been critical of federal bank regulators in recent weeks for failing to curb lax lending standards during the biggest mortgage boom in American history. Last week, Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd, a Connecticut Democrat, said the Fed failed to act on early signs of trouble.

Delinquencies on loans to subprime borrowers with limited or weak credit history rose to 13.3 percent in the fourth quarter, the highest since the third quarter of 2002.

Rising delinquency rates are occurring at a time of economic growth and a low unemployment rate of 4.5 percent, suggesting that poor underwriting standards caused the crisis.

To contact the reporters on this story: Craig Torres in Washington at ctorres3@bloomberg.net ; Scott Lanman in Washington at slanman@bloomberg.net .

Last Updated: March 28, 2007 16:26 EDT

U.S. Economy: Consumer Confidence Wanes, House Prices Decline

U.S. Economy: Consumer Confidence Wanes, House Prices Decline

By Bob Willis and Shobhana Chandra

March 27 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. consumer confidence declined from a five-year high in March as gasoline prices rose, the stock market fell and the housing recession showed few signs of ending.

The New York-based Conference Board's index of consumer confidence retreated more than forecast to 107.2, from 111.2 in February. The survey also said fewer Americans planned to buy a house, while the S&P/Case-Shiller index showed home prices dropped in January for the first time in at least six years.

The reports pushed stocks lower as investors fretted that consumer spending, which is carrying the five-year economic expansion, will weaken. The Conference Board also observed that jobs are plentiful, suggesting rising wages may yet shield most consumers from the worst of the housing downturn.

``Gas prices are weighing on confidence, and the stock- market volatility and all the reports on the subprime mortgage fiasco are also shaking people,'' said Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York. At the same time, ``prospects for continued income gains and consumer spending still look pretty good.''

Economists anticipated the confidence index would fall to 108.5 from an originally reported 112.5 the prior month, according to the median of estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Forecasts ranged from 100 to 112.5.

``We're looking for moderation in consumer spending, but we're not looking for any sharp, sudden clamping of purses or wallets that could push the overall economy into a recession,'' said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group in Pittsburgh.

Prices Retreat

Home values in 20 American metropolitan areas dropped 0.2 percent in January from a year earlier, according to S&P/Case- Shiller. The decrease was the first since the group started keeping year-over-year records in January 2001.

The numbers follow a report yesterday that showed new-home sales at the lowest level in almost seven years as builders struggled with a glut of unsold dwellings. Falling prices make it harder for owners to borrow against home equity and may make lenders even more wary as delinquencies climb.

Lennar Corp., the largest U.S. homebuilder by revenue, said today that earnings plunged 73 percent in the fiscal first quarter. The Miami-based company also said that it will likely miss its 2007 profit forecast.

Stock Swings

Gyrations in stock prices may also be making consumers queasy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped more than 400 points on Feb. 27 after a sell-off in China spread throughout the world and former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warned of the possibility of a recession. The Dow posted its biggest gain in eight months on March 21, wiping away most of the losses of the year, after the Fed indicated it was no longer leaning toward raising interest rates.

The Conference Board's measure of present conditions rose to 137.6, the highest since August 2001, from 137.1 in February. The gauge of expectations for the next six months dropped to 86.9 from 93.8.

``Apprehension about the short-term future has suddenly cast a cloud over consumers' confidence,'' Lynn Franco, the survey's director, said in the report. ``Despite diminishing expectations, consumers' assessment of present-day conditions remains steady and does not suggest a weakening in economic conditions.''

Labor Market

The share of consumers who said jobs are plentiful rose to 30.5 percent in March, the highest since August 2001, from 27.8 percent in February. The proportion of people who said jobs are hard to get rose to 19.1 percent from 17.9 percent.

The proportion of people who expect their incomes to rise over the next six months fell to 17.5 percent from 19.2 percent. The share expecting more jobs fell to 12.7 percent from 13.3 percent.

The Conference Board's index has fared better than other confidence measures in recent months because it tends to be more influenced by consumer attitudes about the state of the labor market, economists said. Still, news of increasing mortgage delinquencies and stagnant home values is instilling unease.

A preliminary survey by Reuters/University of Michigan released earlier this month showed sentiment fell to 88.8, a six-month low, from 91.3 in February. Another measure, the ABC News/Washington Post confidence index, posted its biggest decline since February 2004 for the week ended March 18.

So far, consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, continues to grow. Spending may expand at a 3.2 percent pace this quarter, compared with a 4.2 percent rate the previous three months, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News earlier this March. Spending has averaged 3.3 percent gains since 1990.

Gasoline Prices

Still, increasing gasoline prices are having some effect. Retail sales rose less than forecast last month as higher fuel costs limited spending on other goods, a Commerce Department report earlier this month showed. Sales rose 0.1 percent following no change the prior month.

Fuel prices are up even more this month. The average price of a gallon of regular gasoline at the pump rose to $2.58 as of March 25, the highest since September, according to figures from the American Automobile Association. The average price this month is up 12 percent from February.

Mortgage Defaults

Another concern may be rising mortgage defaults. Home foreclosure filings last month jumped 12 percent compared with a year ago as owners struggled with declining home values and higher adjustable mortgage rates, according to a report yesterday from RealtyTrac, an online listing of foreclosed properties.

Defaults among so-called subprime borrowers, those with poor or limited credit records, are probably behind the increase, economists said.

The limited size of this market suggests it's not a threat to the entire economy, Fed policy makers have said.

While assessing the full effect will take time, currently ``there are few signs that the disruptions in this one sector of the credit markets will have a lasting impact on credit markets as a whole,'' Fed Bank of New York President Timothy Geithner said yesterday.

Only about 15 percent of the more than $9.5 trillion of outstanding U.S. home mortgages are subprime loans, according to bond analysts at Bear Stearns Cos.

One reason for optimism is jobs. The economy created 97,000 jobs in February, and payroll figures for the previous two months were revised higher, the Labor Department said earlier this month. Hourly wages rose 4.1 percent in February from a year earlier and unemployment dropped to 4.5 percent, approaching a six-year low.

To contact the reporter on this story: Bob Willis in Washington at bwillis@bloomberg.net ; Shobhana Chandra in Washington at schandra1@bloomberg.net

About Gajah (Updated)

Alhamdulillah..

Selama dua hari ini prediksi gajah gak pernah meleset, mudah2an besok, lusa dan hari hari berikutnya tetap sama ya guys...
Jangan lupa buat yang udah profit sedekahin 2.5% dari profit anda anda semua..

regards
Nebula Arung Langi

Daily Premium Analysis

USD

The USD slipped and fell against many currencies yesterday on data showing new home sales fell to 848K with the previous revised at 882K. This result has been the lowest since June, 2000 and its effect has boosted expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve Board till cut its interest rate.

Analysts continued by saying that data was quite a turnaround from expectations. In fact, earlier in the session, some economists were referring to Friday’s existing home sales’ positive outcome claiming that the worst of the housing market slowdown was over.

Countering existing homes data seen last week, the new home sales figure widely disappointed the market and confirmed the fact that home construction weakness is likely to linger over the economy. Perhaps with the Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, Mr. Bernanke, scheduled to speak before the Joint Economic Committee on the outlook of the economy, this unease will be addressed.

Although committee members will look on the consequences that the housing market may have on future growth, very little is expected to change from last week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Only if Mr. Bernanke chooses to paint a different picture from the data, the USD may return to its early Monday trading strength.

In other U.S. economic news, crude oil rose by $0.63 a barrel to $62.91. This was amid tension in the Gulf with Iran over its developing nuclear program as well as holding 15 British navy personnel.

Stay posted for this afternoon’s consumer confidence report. If the forecast is accurate and confidence will drop, watch for a USD reaction on all the majors.

EUR

In addition to bad housing data which motivated the EUR/USD back up to 1.3330 trading level, the market was optimistic following Euro releases as well. Firstly, the French business confidence survey rose unexpectedly to a one year high of 109. The survey was combined with French production outlook results helping the EUR to gain further ground against the USD.

Although yesterday’s releases are only a handful, they nevertheless managed to boost speculation of a better than expected German IFO scheduled for early this morning’s European session. With both the current and future assessments to remain at par, there is evidence of a better outcome. Data shows strong factory orders, as compared annually, while industrial production continues at 1.9% pace.

Overall, European ministers revised their previous warnings that the economy would have irrevocable damage as a result of further rate hikes. Countering previous concerns over higher costs imposed by rising interest rates, policy makers are now noting robust growth in the region. This sentiment coupled with a high EUR may help support further rate hikes in the near future.

BOJ Is Watching Land Prices for Excess, Fukui Says (Update3)

BOJ Is Watching Land Prices for Excess, Fukui Says (Update3)

By Mayumi Otsuma

March 27 (Bloomberg) -- Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui said he's closely monitoring land prices after a report showed real estate in some parts of Tokyo surged as much as 46 percent last year.

``We aren't yet in a situation in which land-price gains warrant concern of excessiveness, but we'd like to keep a close watch on them,'' Fukui said in parliament today. ``Rising land prices won't automatically prompt a rate increase.''

Concern that borrowing costs at 0.5 percent will fuel land- price gains could prompt the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates in the first half of this year. The central bank wants to avoid a repeat of an asset-price bubble, the collapse of which in the early 1990s led to more than a decade of stagnation in the world's second-largest economy.

``Land prices are rising, and that's spreading to other big cities'' outside Tokyo, said Hiromichi Shirakawa, a former Bank of Japan official and now chief economist at Credit Suisse in Tokyo. ``This may increase chances of a rate increase before the July upper house election.''

Commercial land prices in Japan's three biggest cities rose 8.9 percent in 2006, the government said on March 22, as investors were lured by large-scale developments including Mitsui Fudosan Co.'s Tokyo Midtown project, which opens this week.

``We've got a clear impression that the recovery of land prices is becoming evident mainly in large cities,'' Fukui said, adding that gains in Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya were ``prominent.''

Omotesando Hills

Commercial land in and around the three cities rose for a second straight year, after gaining 1 percent in 2005, the government said last week. Residential land prices increased for the first time in 16 years, up 2.8 percent.

The steepest gains were recorded in areas near Omotesando Hills, a retail and residential development in central Tokyo that opened on Feb. 11 last year. Commercial and residential land prices both rose as much as 46 percent near the project.

Japan's two largest developers will open developments in central Tokyo in coming weeks. Mitsui Fudosan's Tokyo Midtown project includes the city's tallest building. Mitsubishi Estate Co. is scheduled to open a new 42-story skyscraper in front of Tokyo Station in April.

``The recovery in land prices generally reflects the improving outlook for the economy and higher expectations for profits that can be made by utilizing land,'' Fukui said.

Land prices nationwide rose for the first time in 16 years in 2006 as gains in Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya compensated for drops elsewhere in the country, last week's report showed. Japan's commercial and residential land values are still half the levels reached in 1988.

Some Areas `Overheating'

Finance Minister Koji Omi said last week that the gains don't signal another bubble is emerging. Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Hiroko Ota said some areas are ``overheating'' and the government will ``watch developments closely.''

The central bank left the key overnight lending rate unchanged last week, a month after doubling it to 0.5 percent, the second increase in six years. Fukui said the bank will gradually raise rates as the economy keeps expanding and prices rise, adding that borrowing costs will be held at very low levels for the time being.

``If the economy continues to show positive developments, we will gradually adjust interest-rate levels,'' he said. Japan's key rate remains the lowest among major economies.

The governor said Japan's core consumer prices may ``hover around zero'' in coming months because of cheaper oil. Core prices will stay on a rising trend in the long run as the economy keeps expanding, he added.

Consumer-Price Stability

Core prices probably fell 0.1 percent in February after failing to rise in January, according to the median estimate of 36 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The government will release the figures on March 30 at 8:30 a.m. in Tokyo.

The governor said the central bank's policy shouldn't be bound too much by the board members' understanding of price stability. The bank's nine board members said last year that they consider consumer prices to be stable as long as they remain in the range of zero to 2 percent.

Should the bank be too influenced by short-term price changes, that could have a negative effect on monetary policy, Fukui said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Mayumi Otsuma in Tokyo at motsuma@bloomberg.net

37 Tutorials, Tools & Resources

Even if you're an active trader in stocks, you may not be prepared to invest in forex, or the foreign exchange market. Forex trades 24 hours a day from 5:00 p.m. ET on Sunday until 4:00 p.m. ET Friday, so you won't hear those opening or closing bells. And, there's no central market like the New York Stock Exchange or Nasdaq. Instead, trade is conducted between participants through electronic communication networks (ECNs) and phone networks in various markets around the world. So, when you hear that the US dollar closed at a certain rate, it simply means that was the rate at market close in New York. But currency continues to be traded around the world long after New York's close.

But, like securities, traders can go long or short and they can make a profit or lose money. As with stocks, it's best to conduct some research into how the forex market works before you begin to trade. After you understand how the forex market works, you can begin to build a trading strategy.

The following list contains 37 tutorials, tools, and resources that will help you get started with investments in forex. If you've traded on any stock exchange in the past, some of these tools might feel or appear familiar, but they may have a new twist. The resources listed below were chosen for their clarity and simplicity as well as for their reputation.

Getting Started

The following information is for the forex beginner, but even intermediate-level forex traders might pick up a tip or two from these sites:

1. Baby Pips: A pip is the smallest unit of price for any foreign currency, so "baby pips" is a bit redundant. But you won't find any redunancy on this site. Skip the news on the front page for now and go straight to the School of Pipsology that holds a complete course for beginners. If you walk through all the lessons contained on this site, you'll have a solid basic forex education under your belt.
2. Forex Glossary: Although the previous tutorial might help you to understand some forex terms, this glossary is a great tool to have on hand for future reference. You'll see some familiar terms here, like "selling short" and "limit order," and you'll learn that they mean the same as they do when you use them for trading securities. But, you'll also find new terms like "big figure" and "two-way price," terms that will set you apart as a forex trader.
3. Investopedia: This online financial encyclopedia contains an extensive 10-part article on forex investing, from an introduction to a recap that covers everything from benefits and risks to technical analysis. If you can't get enough of Investopedia's information, head to their Forex index, where you can find a list of articles and an opportunity to download their free e-Book entitled, "High Probability Trading Setups for the Currency Market."
4. National Futures Association (NFA): Now that you have a basic understanding about forex markets, visit the NFA to learn how to build a sound forex strategy. The NFA is "the premier independent provider of efficient and innovative regulatory programs that safeguard the integrity of the derivatives markets," which basically means that this organization regulates any market that depends upon future cash flows. The "investor information" section contains materials about how to find a broker and basic lessons in forex trading. Plus, they publish forex warnings, news, and they offer a place for investor disputes and complaints.
5. Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC): The CFTC operates along the same lines as the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission), except this government organization focuses on protecting market users and the public from fraud in the futures and option markets. So keep this site handy to stay on top of any forex scams through their Consumer Advisory on Forex Fraud. You can learn quickly what to avoid in your learning curve through a detailed forex advisory that offers information about other resources as well.
6. Martket Traders Insitute (MTI): You don't need to spend a lot of money to train in forex markets. Even MTI offers free resources such as videos and lesson plans that will help you get off the ground. If you like what you hear and see, you can invest in materials for the advanced trader down the road.

Learn about Currency

If you're going to trade something, you better know what it is you're trading. These currency sites will help you get up to speed on foreign currency exchange and markets.

7. Exchange Rate: Skip the top link box, as those links will take you to FXCM (Forex Capital Markets — see #13 and #33). Instead, try out the "hot" and "currency info" links that provide information about everything you'd want to know about worldwide currencies for 170 countries. Includes calculators, fun facts, serious facts, and more.
8. Oanda: With a free registration you can access customizable currency tools, including calculators and foreign exchange data. If you don't register you can still access currency exchange tools that are great items for instant information, especially for travelers, let alone forex investors. The Traveler's Cheat Sheet is indispensable for money-conscious globetrotters.
9. GoCurrency: This site offers a powerful and accurate currency converter, but don't stop there. Learn about currencies by country, currency forecasts, and gather insights on foreign investments.
10. The Euro: Confused about the Euro? Over 13 European Union countries now use the Euro, and this Web site, brought to you by the European Commission, will teach you everything you want to know about this currency. But the Euro represents just one currency among hundreds. Which leads me to my next point...
11. List of Currencies: This is an extensive list provided by Wikipedia that covers everything from ancient coinage to the current Yen. As with most Wikipedia lists, you might run across a link or two that doesn't contain information. But, you can use that information to search elsewhere if needed.

Get the News

Once you've learned the basics, the next best thing you can do before you begin to trade is to read up on forex information via traditional financial news sites and blogs. Use the tutorials listed above during this process so that you can grasp the language and learn the strategies involved in any reporting. Take advantage of forums or chats offered by these resources to ask questions:

12. Action Forex: This site offers an easy-to-read layout that includes news, insights, fundamentals reports, calculators, and tons of other forex resources.
13. Daily FX: An easy-on-the-eyes news source that offers a calendar, charts, and a forum. Sponsored by FXCM, this site offers a free weekly trading lesson and free quarterly outlook reports. You must be an FXCM client to access the market commentary, but the other "free" news offers a great resource for learning and for staying on top of forex news.
14. Forex Reader: The Forex Reader is a popular blog that offers updates on financial headlines relegated by currency.
15. Forex News: Like most of the sites listed here, Forex News offers more than news. Check out their forums, their technical news, and their educational and research materials while you're there. Register for free to take full advantage of the site's resources, including a chat feature.
16. FXStreet: Global Forex Trading (GFX) sponsors this forex news site. Use the forums, chats, strategies, techniques, and trading tools to get a feel for forex. Additionally, several bloggers share their insights, including Wayne McDonell's FX Boot Camp Training Videos (visit his FX Bootcamp site).
17. Profiting with Forex Blog: You might discover that this newsworthy blog is part of the network, "Profiting with Forex." The blog is interesting, but the backend reports, podcasts, and commentary at the "Profiting" site might appeal to you more.
18. The Forex Project: Lessons learned first-hand from a forex trader. This site has an unbelievably long list of topics, along with news about the blogger's personal trading experiences, calculators, charts, news, and a perspective on forex psychology.

Participate in Forums

Speaking of forums, here are a few specific resources where you can tap into information from around the world that may help to answer your questions about forex trading and markets. Be aware that individuals who want to sell their ideas visit these forums, just like any other forums. But, you'll find a wealth of valid information here as well.

19. MoneyTec: With over 33,000 members, this traders' forum offers a format to discuss trading ideas, share, learn, and build new trading techniques and strategies.
20. Global View Forums: Another free forum that's been around since 1996. This one focuses solely on forex. You must register to participate.
21. Forex Factory Forum: You'll find a Forex Beginner Q&A section as well as topics that focus on specific strategies and techniques. Free to register.

Learn Strategies

You'll discover that some forex traders use Fibonacci (Fib) methods, and that others rely on current financial news to divine futures. There are as many strategies as personalities in the forex market, but — like the stock market — they rely either on fundamental or technical analysis. The following contains a mix of the two:

22. Fibonacci Lesson: Don't know much 'bout arithmetic, Fibonacci numbers, or the Golden Section? This tutorial, offered by Dr Ron Knott from the Mathematics Department of the University of Surrey, UK will provide results. Simple to use, easy to understand, and filled with illustrations to help you learn why some numbers are so important to nature. Interstingly, these numbers are also of vast interest to many forex investors.
23. Fibonacci Forex Indicators: Forex Planet will begin to show you how to apply Fibs to forex in this easy-to-understand lesson. But, the lesson is short, so you might try the next resource as well:
24. Mini-Lesson on Fibonnaci: This lesson also applies to forex, and it offers a short tutorial on applications along with a downloadable Fib calculator.
25. Intro to Japanese Candlestick Charting: Altavest provides a short and succinct introduction to Japanese candlestick charting, another method that forex traders use to graph charts.
26. Candlestick Patterns: If you like the Japanese candlestick methodology, this site will thrill you. Extensive patterns are illustrated graphically from basic to single patterns and reversal to continuation formations. This entire site offers some great information on techniques and strategies beyond the candlestick information, so take some time to look around while you're here. Basically, this site has it all as far as technical analysis goes.
27. Fundamentals of Forex: Forex TV brings you the lowdown on what type of news would affect forex from a fundamental standpoint. You can use the information on this list to conduct further research, but I'll bring a few of those topics to you now...
28. Consumer Price Index (CPI): The US Department of Labor offers a ton of information just on this page alone through their links. But, the CPI is often influenced by many other factors. If you're a fundamentalist, you might want to tag this next link for further research as well...
29. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA): Don't play around with someone else's opinions. Get the straight stuff from the US Department of Commerce like the pros. Everyone from the White House staff to US Trade Commission employees to trade policy officials who want to negotiate international trade agreements uses the measurements contained on the BEA Web site. Why should you be left out of this information resource?

Use Charts

Charts offer visual validation for technical strategies, but they also reflect fundamental behaviors in the market. Even if you're a seasoned securities trader, you might want to learn more about the psychology behind forex trading. If you can read all sorts of charts inside and out, you'll have the forex advantage.

30. The Law of Charts: Joe Ross offers advice for traders across the board, but the information contained in his "Law of Charts" offer speaks to forex as well as any other trading strategy. He identifies chart patterns that result from human behaviors and points to entry and exit targets on those charts. You can take advantage of Ross's other tools as well, including the forum.
31. Forex Charting 101: A brief and basic overview of forex charts from Pip Trader. You'll discover that the charts are very similar to those that you might use for securities trading. But, some of the charts may seem more complicated if you're not a seasoned trader.
32. Free Forex Charts: There's no reason for me to push you into using a specific chart. Instead, I'll point you to a short list of free forex charts that you can use for practice. When you're ready to begin trading, take a look at their lists of premium and system trading charts for professional use. The lists contain ratings and reviews, visuals, features, and tips and tricks for individual charts.
33. FXCM: Although I don't advocate specific brokers in this article, when you visit brokerage sites make sure that you take advantage of any free information offered by those businesses. In this instance, Forex Capital Markets offers tons of information about forex trading, and you can sign up for a risk-free 30-day practice account to get your feet wet. Forex.com and several other brokerage sites also offer this free account service. Be aware that when you sign up for these services that you'll be added to a mailing list. You can opt out of these lists, but read any other pertinent information to make sure that you're not obligated to purchase anything from any brokerage that you use for services such as this one.

Other tools

The tools listed below are "sidebars" to all the information listed above. I'll cut you loose on the last two sites, as they contain just about every site you'd might want to access for more forex information:

34. Live Forex Rates: You might recognize the GFT logo behind the rates, but don't let that distract you from the constantly changing figures. If you're addicted to live feeds, you'll be mesmerized by the constantly changing currency rates on this chart.
35. A Free Book about Forex: This book is truly free, as you don't need to register to access the PDF file. A forex trader offers information about all the mistakes he made as he learned how to develop his own forex strategy. Short and easy to read, this little book will bring some insights into how to avoid some pitfalls in the forex markets.
36. Top 100 Forex Sites: Although these sites are rated by popularity and, therefore, subject to rating scams, you can learn much from the sites that are listed simply from the variety of information that's offered here. Many sites are brokerage firms, but as I mentioned previously you can find free information on many of these sites such as news, calculators, techniques, and more.
37. Earn Forex: A link exchange/directory for other forex sites. Unlike the "Top 100" site listed previously, Earn Forex doesn't rate their links. But, you will also find much different information here than at the previous site. Additionally, the links are sorted by categories, which makes it easier to find what you need. In addition, you'll find other tools here like calculators, articles, and a forex FAQ and glossary.

There are many other sites that I could list for your forex training, but my next suggestion is to head to your local library and read some books about forex trading. If you find an author or two who are to your liking, begin to study their techniques and strategies both through their books and on the Internet. If you share your information and questions on forums, you might find a mentor who will help you learn how to strategize and to use charts and fundamentals to your advantage as well.

Forex trading isn't learned overnight; so don't feel inadequate if you can't grasp the fine points immediately. You can't lose by learning more about how world economies work. The information that you gather in your search for forex training will make you a better trader no matter which markets you prefer to use.

Yen continues to edge lower as carry trades resume

Forex - Yen continues to edge lower as carry trades resume
03.19.07, 1:12 PM ET

LONDON (AFX) - The yen continued to edge lower across the board as a rebound in equities sparked renewed interest in the carry trade when money is borrowed in low-yielding currencies, in order to invest in higher-yielding assets elsewhere.

The low-yielding yen and the Swiss franc have been the major casualties today, while currencies from regions with high interest rates have benefited, such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars and the pound.

'Rising US stocks continue to fuel fresh demand for carry trades,' said Rhonda Staskow at Thomson IFR Markets.

Recently, sharp falls on equity markets amid worries about trouble among US sub-prime mortgage lenders had sparked some unwinding of carry trades. Investors have begun the week by resuming them following firm US inflation data last week and solid gains in equity markets.

Trade today has seen the yen fall to near three-week lows against the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar and the euro, as well as one-week lows against the pound. The Australian dollar has also come close to breaching the key 0.80 level against the dollar.

Exlusive Of The Day

Dollar, Stocks And Treasuries Look For More Volatility From New Home Sales Written by DailyFX | Mar 24 07 08:15 GMT | In comparison to equities and debt, the currency market drew considerable momentum on Friday's better-than-expected housing data. Pairs like GBPUSD, USDCHF and EURUSD marked gains for the dollar. However, the moves themselves were no greater than those seen on Thursday when the Leading Indicator index and initial jobless claims were the only scheduled releases running across the tapes. In fact, this move was more likely the product of continuation from the previous day's turn on major levels of dollar support than a fundamental change in dollar traders' outlooks for economic expansion or Fed policy. Read more...

US Dollar Underpinned By Surprise Surge in Existing Home Sales Written by DailyFX | Mar 24 07 08:12 GMT | The release of existing home sales lent the US dollar a solid boost in morning trade as the figure jumped a significantly stronger-than-expected 3.9 percent in February - the sharpest rise in three years - to 6.69M from 6.44M. Although the figure for January was revised down to 2.7 percent from 3.0 percent, the markets took the report as unabashedly bullish for US housing and will likely fuel further speculation that the sector has bottomed out. The seemingly cheery data comes as Federal Reserve official Roger Cole admitted a degree of fault yesterday in the fallout of subprime lenders saying, "Given what we know now…we could have done more, sooner," which may be a more accurate indicator of the times ahead. Read more...

Dollar Rises on Unexpected Existing Home Sales Increase Written by CMS Forex | Mar 23 07 19:05 GMT | The dollar rose versus the euro on Friday and pared losses against the yen after a report showed US existing home sales unexpectedly rose in February, reducing chances of Fed rate cuts. The yen was strong against most major currencies, supported by Japanese higher stocks and rising bond yields as property prices in Japan showed the first increase in 16 years. Read more...

Dollar Produces Restrained Rally On Surge In Home Sales Written by DailyFX | Mar 23 07 18:58 GMT | Following through with the theme of the week, the February existing home sales report added another dimension to speculation surrounding one of the most besieged sectors in the US. When the indicator ran across the wires with an unexpected improvement, the dollar quickly turned higher against most of the majors, though large levels looked as if they would hold out through to the close of the week. Read more...

Dollar Rose Following Upbeat Existing Home Sales Written by MG Financial Group | Mar 23 07 17:21 GMT | The dollar extended its gains after an upbeat housing data temporarily relieved some of the worries about the US housing market. US existing home sales rose 3.9% in February to an annual rate of 6.69 million units, beating the estimate of 6.31 million units. This was the biggest rise since March 2004. Traders reduced the odds on a Fed rate cut in the first half of the year after the data release. The dollar strengthened to 1.3289 and 1.9589 versus the euro and the sterling respectively. Read more...

Economic Indicators: Existing Home Sales Written by Wachovia Corporation | Mar 23 07 17:16 GMT | Existing home sales rose unexpectedly in February to 6.69 million sales. This is the third consecutive month in which existing home sales have risen. The sales increases were broad based with increases in both the single family and condo markets. Regionally, the Northeast was the leader of the pack. We expect future volatility as we enter the warmer months. Read more...

Foreign Exchange Market Daily Update Written by Union Bank of California | Mar 23 07 15:50 GMT | The U.S. dollar rose modestly on Friday and pared its losses against the yen after data showed that U.S. existing home sales rose in February, beating expectations for a decline from the previous month. This morning's data release is of special interest to the markets given the problems in the subprime mortgage sector. There are fears that the subprime market turmoil could spill over to other sectors of the economy. The remainder of today's session should be fairly quiet; expect the dollar to consolidate in its recent ranges. Read more...

Forex Fundamental Outlook Written by GCI Financial | Mar 23 07 15:40 GMT | Traders continue to reassess the Federal Open Market Committee's policy statement from two days ago wherein Fed officials noted policy "adjustments" may be needed, a departure from the policy "firming" mentioned in the previous "FOMC" statement. By and large, traders are now concluding the Fed may not be as neutral as it was perceived to be on Wednesday and this has led to some further dollar appreciation. Read more...

Nebula

A nebula (Latin: "mist"; pl. nebulae or nebulæ, with ligature; from Latin nebula, "formation") is an interstellar cloud of dust, hydrogen gas and plasma. Originally nebula was a general name for any extended astronomical object, including galaxies beyond the Milky Way (some examples of the older usage survive; for example, the Andromeda Galaxy was referred to as the Andromeda Nebula before galaxies were discovered by Edwin Hubble). Nebulae often form star-forming regions, such as in the Horsehead Nebula. This nebula is depicted in one of NASA's most famous images, of the "Pillars of Creation". In these regions the formations of gas, dust and other materials 'clump' together to form larger masses, which attract further matter, and eventually will become big enough to form stars. The remaining materials are then believed to form planets, and other solar system objects. (Wikipedia)